Manufacturers Created 36K New Jobs in June, According to US Labor Dept.

Employment gains, job hunter influx clears way for rate hike: experts

Jobs data from June shows that employers added 213,000 jobs in June.

Employers in the United States are thought to have kept up their brisk pace of hiring in June, reflecting the durability of the second-longest US economic expansion on record even in the face of a trade war with China.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4% from 3.8%, as the strong labour market encouraged more people to look for work. That trend is likely to continue through 2018, with some economists predicting the jobless rate will keep falling to 3.5 percent by year end. Yet its path ahead is uncertain.

The Labor Department's monthly jobs report will be released at 8:30 a.m.

"The tariffs jumble things about what we should expect to see in the next few months", said Cathy Barrera, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, to the AP.

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The OECD attributes this decline to the huge increase in part-time and temporary jobs since 2008.

Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said gains have averaged 215,000 month so far this year, up from 182,000 "more than strong enough to keep the unemployment rate trending down over time". On Thursday, Trump floated the prospect of imposing tariffs on more than $500 billion in Chinese imports.

Despite strong hiring, wage growth remained sluggish, and was effectively erased by inflation: average hourly earnings rose just 0.2 per cent to US$26.98, putting wages up 2.7 per cent over the same month previous year, the same as the 2.7 per cent rise in the Consumer Price Index. The rate is already below central bank estimates of levels sustainable in the long run, making it a potential source of upward pressure on wages and inflation. But the average was skewed downward in June because the job seekers were mainly those with only a high school education or less, who are generally paid lower wages, Barrera noted. It is expected to hover around its target for a while, in part because of labor market tightness. But significant pay gains have yet to emerge in the economic data.

Construction payrolls rose by 13,000 last month after rising by 29,000 jobs in May.

Tapping into the potential pool of those who have given up looking for work, the job market seems to still have room for improvement. "This is exactly what we wanted to see: marginalized Americans coming back into the labor force".

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The US economy keeps adding jobs at a blistering pace.

"Retail" hiring, however, was down in the dumps, -22,000 jobs.

The monthly Labor Department report also revised up figures for April and May, reporting that 37,000 more jobs were created in these months than previously estimated. Over the past three months, the economy has produced a robust average monthly job gain of 211,000.

Job gains in June could, however, come below expectations amid growing anecdotal evidence of worker shortages across all sectors of the economy.

Private employment rose by 202,000 (median estimate 190,000) after increasing 239,000; government payrolls rose by 11,000, most since August.

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This suggests that these 600,000 newly available workers can quickly find work if they have the right skills and that the unemployment rate will very swiftly fall back.

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